Boeing Forecasts China's Civil Aviation Market Growth and Future Outlook

TapTechNews August 27th news, Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China in 2024 released today shows that the size of China's civil aviation fleet will more than double by 2043, with an average annual growth rate of 4.1%. This is Boeing's long-term forecast for the demand of commercial aircraft and related services.

Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial aviation marketing at Boeing, said: 'Chinese airlines will see strong demand and need to further expand their modern, fuel-efficient fleets.'

Boeing predicts that the size of China's civil aviation fleet will increase from 4,345 to 9,740 aircraft by then, and the annual passenger traffic growth rate is 5.9%, which will exceed the global average of 4.7% and become the world's largest aviation passenger flow market, driving the growth of single-aisle aircraft deliveries.

According to the CMO, as airlines connect major hubs to smaller cities, passenger traffic will be enhanced. Boeing also predicts that China will become the world's largest passenger flow, driving the growth of the single-aisle fleet, and by then the single-aisle fleet will account for more than 75% of deliveries.

Boeing believes that under the continuous stimulation of the e-commerce demand for cargo aircraft, China's cargo fleet (including new cargo aircraft and converted cargo aircraft) will nearly triple. According to the forecast, in the next 20 years, China will need 8,830 new civil aircraft, including 365 regional jets, 6,720 single-aisle passenger aircraft and 1,575 new wide-body passenger aircraft, and will have the world's largest wide-body fleet, of which about 60% is to support fleet growth and 40% is to replace old aircraft.

In addition, Chinese airlines will need US$780 billion (TapTechNews note: currently about 5.56 trillion yuan) worth of aviation services to support the growing fleet, including digital solutions, maintenance and modifications. Its aviation industry will need to hire and train nearly 430,000 new employees to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and crew members.

Boeing said that Boeing is the largest customer of China's aviation manufacturing industry, and currently more than 10,000 Boeing aircraft use components made in China. Boeing's business in China directly contributes more than US$1.5 billion (currently about 10.683 billion yuan) to the Chinese economy each year, including suppliers, joint ventures, operations, training and R & D investments.

At present, there are nearly 1,600 Boeing 737MAX serving the global civil aviation market, and there are more than 130 models serving the Chinese market.

Darren said that it is expected that more 737MAX will join the Chinese fleet in the near future, including some 737MAX completed and delivered from Zhoushan.

Boeing predicts

New delivery quantity (2024-2043)

8,830

Regional passenger aircraft

365

Single-aisle passenger aircraft

6,720

Wide-body passenger aircraft

1,575

Cargo aircraft

170