Expected Growth of Global Notebook Shipments and the Rise of AI Notebooks in 2024

TapTechNews on June 11th, TrendForce research indicates that the global notebook shipments are expected to reach 173.45 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%.

The entry-level consumer and educational replacement demand is a positive factor driving the market in the first half of the year, and in the second half, it still awaits the stabilization of the economic environment and the introduction of more AI notebook models to stimulate the upgrade demand of enterprises for high-performance notebooks.

The agency points out that the new AI notebook products under strict regulations have been successively launched in the second half of this year. The initial-generation models are mostly priced in the range of $1099 (TapTechNews note: currently about 7975 RMB) to $1699 (currently about 12329 RMB), and the expected market penetration rate in 2024 is about 1%.

Note from TapTechNews: Microsoft requires the NPU performance of AIPC to reach 40 TOPS. The Intel MeteorLake (11.5 TOPS NPU) and AMD HawkPoint (16 TOPS NPU) processors in the first half of the year do not meet this standard.

In 2025, as the AI applications are perfected and can handle complex tasks, providing a better user experience and improving productivity, the agency expects the penetration rate of AI notebooks to increase rapidly to 20.4%, and it is expected to continue to climb in the coming years.

TrendForce predicts that the Windows on Arm (WoA) platform will play an important role in the rapid development of AI notebooks and gradually erode the X86 market share. It is estimated that the market penetration rate of Arm architecture chips will有望exceed 20% rapidly in 2025.

The Arm chip jointly developed by MediaTek and NVIDIA is also expected to occupy a place in the AI notebook market starting from the second quarter of 2025 and will be equipped with Wi-Fi 7 and 5G specifications.