Lithium Battery Market Update in 2024 Growth, Trends, and Industry Dynamics
TapTechNews September 22nd news, Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said today that in August 2024, the installed capacity of lithium batteries was 47 gigawatt-hours (GWh), with a year-on-year increase of 35%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was 12.1 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 12%, accounting for 26%, lower than the same period; while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 35 GWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46%, accounting for 74%, and the growth of ternary batteries slowed down. From January to August, the installed capacity of lithium batteries was 292 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 33%.
Cui Dongshu said that currently, the proportion of the production battery installed in the output of power batteries is continuously decreasing. In 2021, the installed rate of the production battery for power batteries reached 70%, in 2022 it was 54%, and in 2023 it was 50%. In the first eight months of 2024, the proportion of the installed capacity in the output of power batteries dropped to 47%, of which the ternary installed rate was 49% and the lithium iron phosphate installed rate was 46%.
With the development of industries such as energy storage, especially due to the world energy crisis brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the battery demand in industries such as energy storage has increased rapidly, resulting in a more obvious decrease in the proportion of the installed battery. Both power batteries and energy storage batteries are in a situation of overproduction and relatively high inventory pressure. In 2021 and 2022, the growth rate of power batteries was lower than that of the whole vehicle, and in 2024, the installed capacity of power batteries was low, and the battery output growth rate was higher than the installed growth rate.
The battery demand of passenger cars has continued to grow strongly. In 2024, the battery demand of pure electric passenger cars has increased by 17%, while the battery demand of plug-in hybrid passenger cars has increased by 83%, showing a continuous strong growth. Due to the weak demand for new energy in buses, the battery of buses decreased by 29% in August, while the battery demand of pure electric special vehicles has increased significantly by 70%.
Currently, the main battery energy density range of pure electric vehicles is between 125 watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) and 160 Wh/kg. Especially in August 2024, the battery with 125 Wh/kg to 140 Wh/kg accounted for 52%, an increase of 10 perc entage points year-on-year.
From January to August 2024, the proportion of vehicle models with a battery energy density of more than 160 Wh/kg was 14%, which showed a significant decrease compared to 18% in 2023. This is mainly due to the decrease in energy density brought about by the substitution of lithium iron phosphate batteries for ternary. And the products with an energy density of less than 125 decreased from 9% in 2023 to 4% in 2024 currently, and dropped to 1% in the third quarter.
There is still a large gap between BYD and CATL. The proportion of BYD has increased from 15% in 2020 to 24.8% in 2024, and dropped to 24.1% in July-August; while the proportion of CATL in July-August increased to 46%, and the proportion of other battery enterprises has also shown an obvious differentiation trend. Battery enterprises have formed a characteristic of a slowdown in the agglomeration effect of leading enterprises. From 72% of the first two enterprises in 2022, it still remains at 71% this year, and the space for other enterprises is only about 30% or so.
Due to BYD's comprehensive transformation to lithium iron phosphate batteries, the ternary battery advantage of CATL and other top three is more obvious, and recently蜂巢能源 (Honeycomb Energy) has performed better.