TrendForce NAND Flash Product Contract Price Projections for Q3 2024
TapTechNews June 28th News, TrendForce released the latest research report today, estimating that the overall increase in the contract price of NAND flash products in the third quarter will narrow from the 15~20% in the second quarter to 5~10%.
TrendForce stated that several major original factories actively increase production in the second half of the year. Enterprise solid-state drives benefit from the recovery of server orders and show a steady growth in demand, but the demand in the consumer electronics sector continues to be sluggish, resulting in a more obvious oversupply of NAND, which is also the main reason for the reduced increase.
TapTechNews sorted out TrendForce's prediction by category as follows:
3D NAND flash wafers
Due to the supply pullback and the poor purchasing intention of the buyer, the spot price of flash wafers has been less than 80% of the contract price. Therefore, the contract price of flash wafers will basically not increase in the third quarter.
Consumer solid-state drives
Although it is about to enter the peak sales season for notebooks, the willingness of notebook manufacturers to stock up is still relatively conservative.
The two factors of the original factory's capacity upgrade bringing about an increase in supply and the expansion of the use of QLC SSD by PC manufacturers have intensified the price competition. The increase in the contract price of consumer SSD in the third quarter will only be 2~8%.
Enterprise solid-state drives
Technology enterprises continue to expand the construction expenditure on AI servers and traditional servers, resulting in a significant rebound in the order volume of server OEM manufacturers in the third quarter and driving the purchase demand for enterprise solid-state drives to further increase compared to this quarter.
However, due to the overall oversupply of NAND flash, major suppliers actively compete for enterprise SSD orders to reduce inventory in the second half of the year, suppressing the increase amplitude. It is estimated that the increase of enterprise solid-state drives in the third quarter is reduced by about 5% to 15~20%.
UFS flash
At present, smartphone manufacturers still hold sufficient UFS flash in their hands, and the inventory level drops slowly. Module manufacturers are also gradually joining the supply of UFS, which restrains the momentum of the flash original factory to increase the price of UFS again significantly in the third quarter. It is estimated that the final quarterly increase will fall within 3~8%.
eMMC flash
Several major original factories have an obvious attitude towards the price increase of eMMC flash, but the demand for eMMC in the third quarter is still limited, and the final price increase will not be very large, and the contract price will remain approximately unchanged.